Arsenal vs Hull City preview and prediction: second-placed hosts meet a draw-heavy visitor

Context and table

Arsenal host Hull City at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday 7 November, with kick-off at 15:00 UTC. It is a Premier League fixture between sides in very different spots in the table.

As things stand at the time of writing, Arsenal are second with 21 points from 8 matches. They have 7 wins, no draws and 1 defeat, with 13 goals scored and 5 conceded. Hull City are 10th with 10 points from 8 matches, after 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats. Their goal difference is +1. That leaves 11 points between the teams. Both could play again before this game, so the picture may change.

Arsenal's recent form

Arsenal's last 5 matches brought 3 wins, 2 draws and no defeats, with 9 goals scored and 3 conceded. They beat Lille 3-0 at home and won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest. They then drew 2-2 away to Bayern München, beat Everton 2-0 at home and drew 1-1 at Fleetwood Town on 27 October.

Over the season they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match. They have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their matches and failed to score in 13%. The expected goals figures from the last 5 games are mostly favourable. Arsenal recorded 2.22 against Fleetwood Town and 1.82 against Everton, while conceding 0.34 and 0.47. The exception was the Bayern München game, where the figures were 1.35 for and 2.55 against.

Hull City's recent form

Hull City have not won in their last 5 matches. They have 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. The latest result was a 1-1 draw at home to Brentford on 25 October. Before that came a 1-0 defeat at Fulham and a 2-2 home draw with Everton. Earlier results in the run were a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle and a 2-2 draw at Chelsea.

On the season they average 1.1 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. They have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games and failed to score in 25%. The Fulham match stands out, with an expected goals figure of 0.16 for and 1.38 against. Against Brentford they produced 1.95 and allowed 1.87.

Head-to-head and absences

There are no previous meetings between the sides in the head-to-head record, so there is no direct history to draw on. No absences are listed for either side at the time of writing.

Outlook

The form and the table both favour Arsenal, who have conceded few goals and created good chances in most of their recent games. Hull City have drawn often and have been level at the end of several matches against strong opposition, including a 2-2 draw at Chelsea. That suggests they are hard to separate from their opponents at times, but they have not yet turned that into a win in this run.

As things stand, the evidence points towards Arsenal as the more likely side to control the game. A competitive afternoon looks possible if Hull City can repeat the attacking output they showed against Brentford.