Football analytics · built on mathematics
See what the bookmakers see — and what they miss.
We calculate the probability of every outcome in every league we cover, compare it with the bookmakers' odds and show you where they disagree. Every prediction is logged before kick-off and settled in public — hits and misses.
- Logged before kick-off
- Every miss published
- Probabilities, not tips
1X2 (Match result)
Over/Under 2.5
Both teams to score
Arsenal create the better chances at home — 1.9 expected goals a game over their last eight — and Chelsea have conceded first in four of their last six away. Chelsea's midfield absences cut their pressing numbers, which is most of why our numbers lean home rather than draw.
Example match with illustrative numbers — not a prediction. Real breakdowns are published before every kick-off.
Coverage and the public record
21 leagues, free to browse. Our numbers on 10 of them with Pro, all 21 with Elite.
How the public record worksInside a match
One match, fully opened
This is what a member sees on every match page: the probabilities, the reasoning, the market comparison and the live recalculation.
Three markets, one honest number each
Match result, over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score, each with a confidence band. Never a predicted scoreline — one score is a guess, a probability is a measurement.
Over/Under 2.5
Both teams to score
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
| 1X2 (Match result) | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker | 44% | 29% | 29% |
| Bookmaker A | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Bookmaker B | 2.27 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Bookmaker C | 2.15 | 3.45 | 3.40 |
+1 more bookmakers
| 1X2 (Match result) | Ours | Bookmaker | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 52% | 44% | +8.0% |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | -5.0% |
| Chelsea | 24% | 29% | -5.0% |
Arsenal win: our probability 52%, the bookmaker's 44%.
+8.0%How it works
Three steps, all of them auditable
No black box, and nothing that only makes sense after the result is known.
The public record
Every miss public
Every prediction is timestamped before kick-off and settled against the result. Nothing is edited, hidden or removed. The record below fills in as matches finish.
Logged before kick-off
Every prediction carries the time it was published.
Settled in public
Hit or miss, against the official result, on the same page.
Never edited
A bad week stays on the page. That is how you know the good ones are real.
Includes the weekly email comparing our probabilities with the bookmakers'.
FootballEdge vs a tipster
Numbers you can audit, not a tipster you have to trust
There are no testimonials on this page. When members have something real to say, it will go here — inventing quotes would contradict the one thing this product sells.
The history
A tipster subscription: A results page the seller curates
FootballEdge: Every prediction published before kick-off and settled in public, hit or miss
What you receive
A tipster subscription: A pick, and the instruction to place it
FootballEdge: A probability and the reasoning behind it, so you can disagree with it
During the match
A tipster subscription: Nothing until the next message
FootballEdge: Re-priced when a goal or a red card lands, with the shift annotated
What it costs
A tipster subscription: A fee per tipster, per month, usually several at once
FootballEdge: One subscription covering every fixture in your tier
How results are shown
A tipster subscription: Screenshots of the winning slips
FootballEdge: Hit rate against a naive baseline, plus a calibration chart — misses included
Pricing
Free to start. Pro when the numbers convince you.
Browsing all 21 leagues is free, and so is one full match breakdown every day. Pro and Elite open our numbers on every match in their leagues.
Cancel any time. Every purchase comes with a 14-day money-back guarantee on the subscription fee — one refund per person. Prices include VAT where it applies. Refund Policy
Questions
Seven things people ask first
See what the bookmakers see — and what they miss.
Free account, no card. One full match breakdown every day — and the public track record, whether you sign up or not.