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Audited ledger

Track Record

Every prediction we log before kick-off, scored against the final result — hits and misses, nothing removed. Matches we tested afterwards are labelled Backtest and counted separately. Each hit rate is printed next to the naive baseline it has to beat.

Live predictions

Logged before kick-off and settled at full time · 74 matches

Hit rate

66.7%

-2.8ptvs baseline

1X2

72.7%

+0.0ptvs baseline

O/U 2.5

57.1%

-7.2ptvs baseline

Hits and misses

36 picks across 74 matches

112 markets skipped

  • Hits
  • Misses
Hits / Misses
HitsMisses
1X272.7%27.3%
O/U 2.557.1%42.9%

Tested on 19,823 past matches since

What our current method calculates for past matches, using only data that was available before each kick-off. These were calculated after the matches were played and never published at the time, so they are kept apart from the live numbers above.

See the tested matches

2,078 picks across 19,823 matches

Hit rate
76.6%
+11.7pt vs baseline
1X2
77.1%
+11.2pt vs baseline
O/U 2.5
75.1%
+13.1pt vs baseline

Calibration

When our current method says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Each bar is what actually happened in that probability band; the line is the probability calculated after the match for these tested matches.

Tested on past matches — calculated after the match

59,469 probabilities · all markets, not only picks

Our probability vs actual hit rate
  • Actual hit rate
  • Our probability
Our probability vs actual hit rate
Probability bandOur probabilityActual hit ratePicks
30–40%37.8%38.2%3512
40–50%44.8%44.1%8192
50–60%54.1%54.8%38556
60–70%63.3%64.8%7391
70–80%74.1%76.8%1380
80–90%83.9%86.3%358
90–100%92.5%92.5%80

Prediction ledger

Past results are not a prediction of future results. FootballEdge publishes calculated probabilities and market prices for analysis; it does not give betting advice and takes no bets. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.