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Track Record

Every prediction we log before kick-off, scored against the final result — hits and misses, nothing removed. Matches we tested afterwards are labelled Backtest and counted separately. Each hit rate is printed next to the naive baseline it has to beat.

Live predictions

Logged before kick-off and settled at full time · 78 matches

Hit rate

67.6%

-2.7ptvs baseline

1X2

73.9%

+0.0ptvs baseline

O/U 2.5

57.1%

-7.2ptvs baseline

Hits and misses

37 picks across 78 matches

119 markets skipped

  • Hits
  • Misses
Hits / Misses
HitsMisses
1X273.9%26.1%
O/U 2.557.1%42.9%

Tested on 19,823 past matches since

What our current method calculates for past matches, using only data that was available before each kick-off. These were calculated after the matches were played and never published at the time, so they are kept apart from the live numbers above.

See the tested matches

2,078 picks across 19,823 matches

Hit rate
76.6%
+11.7pt vs baseline
1X2
77.1%
+11.2pt vs baseline
O/U 2.5
75.1%
+13.1pt vs baseline

Calibration

When our current method says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Each bar is what actually happened in that probability band; the line is the probability calculated after the match for these tested matches.

Tested on past matches — calculated after the match

59,469 probabilities · all markets, not only picks

Our probability vs actual hit rate
  • Actual hit rate
  • Our probability
Our probability vs actual hit rate
Probability bandOur probabilityActual hit ratePicks
30–40%37.8%38.2%3512
40–50%44.8%44.1%8192
50–60%54.1%54.8%38556
60–70%63.3%64.8%7391
70–80%74.1%76.8%1380
80–90%83.9%86.3%358
90–100%92.5%92.5%80

Proof our picks weren't changed

Since 16 October 2026, every batch of picks is sealed minutes before kick-off with an independent timestamp authority and the Bitcoin blockchain. A pick marked “Sealed” can be checked by anyone.

The sealed record starts on 16 October 2026. Picks from before that date were logged before kick-off in our own database, but they were not sealed with an independent timestamp, so they carry no seal.

  • 1 match · 0 picksBolivia Primera División
    Block 971693
    2e4b2a3f8f3d7f880bb0172bbf3572cb59b1446618993f87ae249fa4bfe4ec19Sealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert ·
  • 1 match · 0 picksBrazil Série A
    Block 971693
    83472c2588d79cb54b6c1132ec18adb3513406e6073382e85da4f3f3ad4985a3Sealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert ·
  • 1 match · 0 picksArgentina Liga Profesional
    Block 971693
    c05ee9c1f80a0a8dc037621d9646f93d14ab73b9b3398f2768d1bd972bf1af40Sealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert ·
All sealed batches and how to check them →

Prediction ledger

Past results are not a prediction of future results. FootballEdge publishes calculated probabilities and market prices for analysis; it does not give betting advice and takes no bets. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.