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Audited ledger

Track Record

Every prediction we log before kick-off, scored against the final result — hits and misses, nothing removed. Matches we tested afterwards are labelled Backtest and counted separately. Each hit rate is printed next to the naive baseline it has to beat.

Live predictions

Logged before kick-off and settled at full time · 0 matches

Hit rate

—

1X2

—

O/U 2.5

—

Hits and misses

0 picks across 0 matches

0 markets skipped

  • Hits
  • Misses
Hits / Misses
HitsMisses

Tested on 238 past matches since

What our current method calculates for past matches, using only data that was available before each kick-off. These were calculated after the matches were played and never published at the time, so they are kept apart from the live numbers above.

See the tested matches

43 picks across 238 matches

Hit rate
69.8%
+4.7pt vs baseline
1X2
76.3%
+5.3pt vs baseline
O/U 2.5
20.0%
+0.0pt vs baseline

Calibration

When our current method says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Each bar is what actually happened in that probability band; the line is the probability calculated after the match for these tested matches.

Tested on past matches — calculated after the match

714 probabilities · all markets, not only picks

Our probability vs actual hit rate
  • Actual hit rate
  • Our probability
Our probability vs actual hit rate
Probability bandOur probabilityActual hit ratePicks
30–40%38.3%40.0%20
40–50%44.8%38.7%106
50–60%54.4%49.7%483
60–70%63.7%59.8%82
70–80%76.3%76.2%21
80–90%82.5%100.0%2

Prediction ledger

  • Rangers — Kilmarnock · Scottish Premiership
    3–1
    Rangers1X2Hit
    Our %
    76%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Hibernian — Kilmarnock · Scottish Premiership
    0–1
    Hibernian1X2Miss
    Our %
    66%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Rangers — ST Mirren · Scottish Premiership
    1–0
    Rangers1X2Hit
    Our %
    69%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Celtic — Aberdeen · Scottish Premiership
    3–0
    Celtic1X2Hit
    Our %
    80%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Heart Of Midlothian — ST Johnstone · Scottish Premiership
    2–1
    Heart Of Midlothian1X2Hit
    Our %
    67%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Celtic — Falkirk · Scottish Premiership
    2–1
    Celtic1X2Hit
    Our %
    80%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Celtic — Falkirk · Scottish Premiership
    2–1
    Over 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
    Our %
    69%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    Medium
  • Celtic — Dundee · Scottish Premiership
    1–0
    Celtic1X2Hit
    Our %
    81%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Celtic — Dundee · Scottish Premiership
    1–0
    Over 2.5O/U 2.5Miss
    Our %
    70%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    Medium
  • Celtic — Falkirk · Scottish Premiership
    3–1
    Celtic1X2Hit
    Our %
    76%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Celtic — ST Mirren · Scottish Premiership
    1–0
    Celtic1X2Hit
    Our %
    78%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Rangers — Dundee Utd · Scottish Premiership
    4–2
    Rangers1X2Hit
    Our %
    72%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Hibernian — Kilmarnock · Scottish Premiership
    3–0
    Hibernian1X2Hit
    Our %
    66%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Rangers — Aberdeen · Scottish Premiership
    4–1
    Rangers1X2Hit
    Our %
    75%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Heart Of Midlothian — Dundee · Scottish Premiership
    1–0
    Heart Of Midlothian1X2Hit
    Our %
    67%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Celtic — Motherwell · Scottish Premiership
    3–1
    Celtic1X2Hit
    Our %
    67%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Aberdeen — Celtic · Scottish Premiership
    1–2
    Celtic1X2Hit
    Our %
    66%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Celtic — Hibernian · Scottish Premiership
    1–2
    Celtic1X2Miss
    Our %
    67%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Kilmarnock — Celtic · Scottish Premiership
    2–3
    Celtic1X2Hit
    Our %
    68%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High
  • Rangers — Kilmarnock · Scottish Premiership
    5–1
    Rangers1X2Hit
    Our %
    73%
    Closing odds
    —
    Confidence
    High

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