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Audited ledger

Track Record

Every prediction we log before kick-off, scored against the final result — hits and misses, nothing removed. Matches we tested afterwards are labelled Backtest and counted separately. Each hit rate is printed next to the naive baseline it has to beat.

Live predictions

Logged before kick-off and settled at full time · 18 matches

Hit rate

81.8%

+0.0ptvs baseline

1X2

100.0%

+0.0ptvs baseline

O/U 2.5

50.0%

+0.0ptvs baseline

Hits and misses

11 picks across 18 matches

25 markets skipped

  • Hits
  • Misses
Hits / Misses
HitsMisses
1X2100.0%0.0%
O/U 2.550.0%50.0%

Tested on 434 past matches since

What our current method calculates for past matches, using only data that was available before each kick-off. These were calculated after the matches were played and never published at the time, so they are kept apart from the live numbers above.

See the tested matches

70 picks across 434 matches

Hit rate
64.3%
+4.3pt vs baseline
1X2
65.6%
+4.7pt vs baseline
O/U 2.5
50.0%
+0.0pt vs baseline

Calibration

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Each bar is what actually happened in that probability band; the line is the probability we published.

Live predictions only

54 probabilities · all markets, not only picks

Our probability vs actual hit rate
  • Actual hit rate
  • Our probability
Our probability vs actual hit rate
Probability bandOur probabilityActual hit ratePicks
30–40%38.7%0.0%1
40–50%43.8%57.1%7
50–60%54.0%46.4%28
60–70%64.7%77.8%9
70–80%74.4%60.0%5
80–90%86.9%100.0%3
90–100%96.1%100.0%1

Prediction ledger

Past results are not a prediction of future results. FootballEdge publishes calculated probabilities and market prices for analysis; it does not give betting advice and takes no bets. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.