Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II preview and prediction: mid-table side host a struggling visitor

Context

Sabadell host Real Sociedad II in the Segunda División on Monday 9 November, with kick-off at 19:30 UTC at the Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta. Both sides may play again before then, so everything below reflects the position as things stand at the time of writing.

Sabadell are 10th after 12 matches, with 4 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats. They have 17 points and a goal difference of +1 (12 scored, 11 conceded). Real Sociedad II are 18th with 11 points from 12 matches: 3 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats. Their goal difference is -7 (15 scored, 22 conceded). The gap between the sides is 6 points.

Sabadell's recent form

Sabadell's last 5 league matches brought 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. They lost 1-2 at Albacete on 31 October and drew 1-1 at home with Tenerife on 25 October. Before that came a 0-1 defeat at Burgos, a 2-1 win at AD Ceuta FC and a 0-0 home draw with FC Andorra.

Over the season they average 1 goal scored and 0.9 conceded per match. They have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches and failed to score in 42%. The expected goals figures for the Albacete game were 1.67 for Sabadell and 0.42 against, so the defeat came in a match where they created more than they allowed.

Real Sociedad II's recent form

The visitors have also taken 1 win from their last 5, with 4 defeats, 6 goals scored and 12 conceded. The win was a 1-0 home result against Girona on 31 October. Before that they lost 0-1 at Las Palmas, 2-4 at home to Almeria, 1-4 at Celta de Vigo II and 2-3 at home to Granada CF.

Their season averages are 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. They have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their games, and 58% of their matches have produced more than 2.5 goals. Their expected goals figures were higher than their opponents' against Girona (1.45 to 0.59) and Almeria (2.53 to 1.47), which shows they have created chances even while losing.

Head-to-head and absences

There are no previous meetings between the sides in the record, so there is no head-to-head to draw on. No absences are listed for either team at the time of writing.

Outlook

The table and the recent results favour Sabadell. They sit higher, have the better goal difference and concede fewer goals per match. Real Sociedad II have been porous at the back, though their attacking numbers have been steadier than their results.

Sabadell have not been prolific, however, and have failed to score in 42% of their matches. A modest home edge looks more likely than a one-sided game, and the match could turn on whether the visitors' chance creation finally yields goals.