Egyptian Premier LeagueTested on past matches

Public ledger

Track Record

Name: Track record: picks sealed before kick-off
Creator: FootballEdge
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Every prediction we log before kick-off, scored against the final result — hits and misses, nothing removed. Matches we tested afterwards are labelled Backtest and counted separately. Each hit rate is printed next to the naive baseline it has to beat.

Live predictions

Logged before kick-off and settled at full time · 3 matches

Hit rate

100.0%

+100.0 pt vs 0.0% baseline

1 hit · 0 missed

1X2

—

No settled picks in this period

0 hit · 0 missed

O/U 2.5

100.0%

+100.0 pt vs 0.0% baseline

1 hit · 0 missed

Picks settled

from 3 matches

5 markets skipped

Hit
Missed
Naive baseline
Markets we picked

Proof our picks weren't changed

Since 16 October 2026, every batch of picks is sealed minutes before kick-off with an independent timestamp authority and the Bitcoin blockchain. A pick marked “Sealed” can be checked by anyone.

The sealed record starts on 16 October 2026. Picks from before that date were logged before kick-off in our own database, but they were not sealed with an independent timestamp, so they carry no seal.

Kick-off	Batch	Fingerprint	Timestamp authority	Bitcoin
Oct 20, 2026, 01:05 AM	1 match · 0 picksColombia Primera A	0f04de7ec1dc…	Sealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert · Oct 20, 12:59:34 AM	Block 972237
Oct 20, 2026, 12:15 AM	1 match · 0 picksArgentina Liga Profesional	ff7d1e4c0283…	Sealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert · Oct 20, 12:09:30 AM	Block 972234
Oct 19, 2026, 11:00 PM	1 match · 0 picksBrazil Série A	49228c779363…	Sealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert · Oct 19, 10:54:32 PM	Block 972221

Oct 20, 2026, 01:05 AM1 match · 0 picksColombia Primera A
Block 972237
0f04de7ec1dcd64d45087ce4d7d3bc6fc68c85c4f8f2f9da22fb0ff734950c99Sealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert · Oct 20, 12:59:34 AM
Oct 20, 2026, 12:15 AM1 match · 0 picksArgentina Liga Profesional
Block 972234
ff7d1e4c02837ba3bc74d9da9f94e0322f47c6b29d6cd6072345c21b4560578bSealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert · Oct 20, 12:09:30 AM
Oct 19, 2026, 11:00 PM1 match · 0 picksBrazil Série A
Block 972221
49228c779363d4a7366986975efe9aecc1aefdb08c958cdd8d17220d41421a0aSealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert · Oct 19, 10:54:32 PM

All sealed batches and how to check them →

Tested on past matches

Calculated after the match with our current method and never published at the time. These rows are not in the live numbers above.

Every prediction with our probability, the price that was available and the result. Rows labelled Backtest were calculated after the match.
Date	Match	Market / Pick	Confidence	Our %	Closing odds	Result	Outcome
Oct 12, 2026	Smouha SC — Ghazl El MehallaEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	70%	—	1–0	Hit
Sep 14, 2026	El Geish — Smouha SCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	73%	—	0–1	Hit
Aug 23, 2026	El Gouna FC — Future FCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	71%	—	1–1	Hit
May 18, 2026	Ghazl El Mehalla — Al IttihadEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	70%	—	1–0	Hit
May 18, 2026	El Geish — PharcoEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	72%	—	1–0	Hit
May 13, 2026	Al Ittihad — El GeishEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	72%	—	1–0	Hit
May 8, 2026	El Mokawloon — El Gouna FCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	70%	—	1–0	Hit
May 7, 2026	El Geish — Ghazl El MehallaEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	73%	—	1–0	Hit
May 3, 2026	Ghazl El Mehalla — Ismaily SCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	70%	—	0–0	Hit
Apr 24, 2026	Pharco — El Gouna FCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	72%	—	0–1	Hit
Apr 19, 2026	El Gouna FC — Ismaily SCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	72%	—	1–0	Hit
Apr 14, 2026	Future FC — El Gouna FCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	70%	—	0–0	Hit
Apr 8, 2026	Ghazl El Mehalla — El Gouna FCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	73%	—	1–0	Hit
Apr 4, 2026	El Gouna FC — Al IttihadEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	72%	—	0–0	Hit
Mar 5, 2026	Haras El Hodood — Pyramids FCEgyptian Premier League	Pyramids FC1X2	High	72%	—	1–3	Hit
Mar 2, 2026	Al Ittihad — Ghazl El MehallaEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	71%	—	2–0	Hit
Feb 20, 2026	Zamalek SC — Haras El HodoodEgyptian Premier League	Zamalek SC1X2	High	75%	—	2–0	Hit
Feb 16, 2026	Al Ittihad — Smouha SCEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	70%	—	1–0	Hit
Feb 11, 2026	Al Ahly — Ismaily SCEgyptian Premier League	Al Ahly1X2	High	76%	—	2–0	Hit
Feb 6, 2026	El Geish — Al IttihadEgyptian Premier League	Under 2.5O/U 2.5	High	70%	—	0–1	Hit

Smouha SC — Ghazl El MehallaOct 12, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
70%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
El Geish — Smouha SCSep 14, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
0–1
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
73%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
El Gouna FC — Future FCAug 23, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–1
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
71%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Ghazl El Mehalla — Al IttihadMay 18, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
70%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
El Geish — PharcoMay 18, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
72%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Al Ittihad — El GeishMay 13, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
72%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
El Mokawloon — El Gouna FCMay 8, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
70%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
El Geish — Ghazl El MehallaMay 7, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
73%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Ghazl El Mehalla — Ismaily SCMay 3, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
0–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
70%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Pharco — El Gouna FCApr 24, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
0–1
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
72%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
El Gouna FC — Ismaily SCApr 19, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
72%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Future FC — El Gouna FCApr 14, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
0–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
70%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Ghazl El Mehalla — El Gouna FCApr 8, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
73%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
El Gouna FC — Al IttihadApr 4, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
0–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
72%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Haras El Hodood — Pyramids FCMar 5, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–3
Pyramids FC1X2Hit
Our %
72%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Al Ittihad — Ghazl El MehallaMar 2, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
2–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
71%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Zamalek SC — Haras El HodoodFeb 20, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
2–0
Zamalek SC1X2Hit
Our %
75%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Al Ittihad — Smouha SCFeb 16, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
1–0
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
70%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
Al Ahly — Ismaily SCFeb 11, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
2–0
Al Ahly1X2Hit
Our %
76%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High
El Geish — Al IttihadFeb 6, 2026 · Egyptian Premier League
0–1
Under 2.5O/U 2.5Hit
Our %
70%
Closing odds
—
Confidence
High

Calibration

When our current method says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Each bar is what actually happened in that probability band; the line is the probability calculated after the match for these tested matches.

Tested on past matches — calculated after the match

1,122 probabilities · all markets, not only picks

Our probability vs actual hit rate

Actual hit rate
Our probability

Our probability vs actual hit rate
Probability band	Our probability	Actual hit rate	Picks
30–40%	37.1%	31.2%	141
40–50%	44.4%	47.9%	119
50–60%	54.7%	53.0%	589
60–70%	64.1%	68.2%	239
70–80%	72.1%	93.9%	33
80–90%	81.3%	100.0%	1

Tested on 374 past matches since Aug 2025

What our current method calculates for past matches, using only data that was available before each kick-off. These were calculated after the matches were played and never published at the time, so they are kept apart from the live numbers above.

Back to live picks

34 picks across 374 matches

Hit rate: 94.1%; +73.5 pt vs baseline
1X2: 84.6%; +30.8 pt vs baseline
O/U 2.5: 100.0%; +100.0 pt vs baseline

Past results are not a prediction of future results. FootballEdge publishes calculated probabilities and market prices for analysis; it does not give betting advice and takes no bets. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

Live predictions

Hit rate?

1X2?

O/U 2.5?

Picks settled?