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3. LigaTested on past matches

Public ledger

Track Record

Every prediction we log before kick-off, scored against the final result — hits and misses, nothing removed. Matches we tested afterwards are labelled Backtest and counted separately. Each hit rate is printed next to the naive baseline it has to beat.

Live predictions

Logged before kick-off and settled at full time · 9 matches

Hit rate

—

No settled picks in this period

0 hit · 0 missed

1X2

—

No settled picks in this period

0 hit · 0 missed

O/U 2.5

—

No settled picks in this period

0 hit · 0 missed

Picks settled

0

from 9 matches

18 markets skipped

  • Hit
  • Missed
  • Naive baseline
  • Markets we picked

Proof our picks weren't changed

Since 16 October 2026, every batch of picks is sealed minutes before kick-off with an independent timestamp authority and the Bitcoin blockchain. A pick marked “Sealed” can be checked by anyone.

The sealed record starts on 16 October 2026. Picks from before that date were logged before kick-off in our own database, but they were not sealed with an independent timestamp, so they carry no seal.

  • 1 match · 0 picksColombia Primera A
    Pending
    0f04de7ec1dcd64d45087ce4d7d3bc6fc68c85c4f8f2f9da22fb0ff734950c99Sealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert ·
  • 1 match · 0 picksArgentina Liga Profesional
    Pending
    ff7d1e4c02837ba3bc74d9da9f94e0322f47c6b29d6cd6072345c21b4560578bSealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert ·
  • 1 match · 0 picksBrazil Série A
    Block 972221
    49228c779363d4a7366986975efe9aecc1aefdb08c958cdd8d17220d41421a0aSealed before kick-offFreeTSA + DigiCert ·
All sealed batches and how to check them →

Tested on past matches

Calculated after the match with our current method and never published at the time. These rows are not in the live numbers above.

Calibration

When our current method says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Each bar is what actually happened in that probability band; the line is the probability calculated after the match for these tested matches.

Tested on past matches — calculated after the match

1,404 probabilities · all markets, not only picks

Our probability vs actual hit rate
  • Actual hit rate
  • Our probability
Our probability vs actual hit rate
Probability bandOur probabilityActual hit ratePicks
30–40%38.3%45.1%91
40–50%44.5%42.7%225
50–60%55.0%59.2%843
60–70%62.9%71.4%231
70–80%72.9%92.9%14

Tested on 468 past matches since

What our current method calculates for past matches, using only data that was available before each kick-off. These were calculated after the matches were played and never published at the time, so they are kept apart from the live numbers above.

Back to live picks

14 picks across 468 matches

Hit rate
92.9%
-0.0 pt vs baseline
1X2
88.9%
+0.0 pt vs baseline
O/U 2.5
100.0%
+0.0 pt vs baseline

Past results are not a prediction of future results. FootballEdge publishes calculated probabilities and market prices for analysis; it does not give betting advice and takes no bets. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.