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Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction and preview — Brazil Série A

Brazil Série AElite
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Atletico Paranaense2–2Atletico-MG

Arena da Baixada

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Medium
Our prediction

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Probabilities, expected goals and the reasoning behind our numbers for this match.

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Match stats

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MG
  • 51%Possession49%
  • 31Total shots15
  • 10Shots on target9
  • 10Corners3
  • 13Fouls11
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards1
  • 0Offsides1
  • 498Passes487
  • 88%Pass accuracy87%
  • 7Saves8
  • 2.48xG1.50

Final numbers after the whistle.

Match events

  1. Kerwin VargasGoal · Assist: Gilberto
    8′
  2. 27′
    BernardGoal
  3. 38′
    Fred ⇄ Victor HugoSubstitution
  4. João Cruz ⇄ LeozinhoSubstitution
    61′
  5. Gilberto ⇄ ClaudinhoSubstitution
    61′
  6. ClaudinhoVAR review
    64′
  7. 67′
    Tomás CuelloYellow card
  8. 67′
    Maycon ⇄ Tomás PérezSubstitution
  9. 68′
    Mamady Cissé ⇄ Kevin CastañoSubstitution
  10. 72′
    Tomás PérezVAR review
  11. 73′
    Tomás PérezRed card
  12. 74′
    Kevin CastañoYellow card
  13. 76′
    Bernard ⇄ Igor GomesSubstitution
  14. 76′
    Reinier ⇄ Thiago BorbasSubstitution
  15. Carlos Terán ⇄ Jorge RivaldoSubstitution
    81′
  16. Luiz Gustavo ⇄ Bruno ZapelliSubstitution
    81′
  17. Lucas Esquivel ⇄ Gilberto JuniorSubstitution
    90′
  18. Kevin ViverosGoal
    90+3′
  19. 90+7′
    LyancoGoal · Assist: Thiago Borbas

Atletico Paranaense had 51% of the ball and 31 shots (10 on target); Atletico-MG had 15 (9 on target). Corners: 10–3. Yellow cards: 0–2. Red cards: 0–1.

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG: key facts and questions

When and where is Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG was played on Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 23:00 UTC and finished 2–2. The venue is Arena da Baixada. It is a Brazil Série A fixture.
What is the recent form of Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG?
Atletico Paranaense: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches, 11–9 on goals. Atletico-MG: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in the last 5 matches, 9–3 on goals.
Where are Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG in the table?
Atletico Paranaense are 3rd with 53 points; Atletico-MG are 6th with 50.
Have Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG met recently?
Yes: 5 meetings on record — 1 won by Atletico Paranaense, 2 by Atletico-MG and 2 draws. The last one, on 8 Oct 2026, finished Atletico Paranaense 2–2 Atletico-MG.
How often do Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG matches go over 2.5 goals?
This season 52% of Atletico Paranaense's matches and 48% of Atletico-MG's had three goals or more. Atletico Paranaense average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match; Atletico-MG 1.4 and 1.1.
How often do Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet or fail to score?
Atletico Paranaense kept a clean sheet in 26% of their matches and failed to score in 23%; Atletico-MG in 26% and 29%.
Is there a FootballEdge pick on Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
No. Our numbers on this match were not clear enough for a pick — we publish fewer picks on purpose.
How can I check a pick wasn't changed after kick-off?
Every batch of picks gets a SHA-256 fingerprint minutes before kick-off, timestamped by an independent authority and anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain. Anyone can check it on our proof page. How to check a sealed pick